O PROGRAMA NUCLEAR IRANIANO FOI DESTRUÍDO? I Professor HOC

Well, everyone, I came to talk to you about the developments in the discussion about the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program. We’ve been watching a discussion in recent days about whether or not the Iranian nuclear program or the facilities were destroyed. Obviously, this topic was already part of any discussion about an attack or the use of force to destroy the Iranian nuclear program. This concern already existed: will it work? Will it work? Will it be effective? And if not, what happens? Then this isn’t new. But I think it’s important for us to reflect here. I’ll analyze and bring up some important points from this discussion. There’s an intelligence report that was leaked and made public. Trump was bothered by CNN and the New York Times. They weren’t the only ones who broke the news. Everyone talked about this report. All the media outlets are talking about it. It’s a preliminary report and still very specific. But I need to bring this point here to you so we can understand: what are the consequences? What is the reality? What changes the game in the conflict ? What changes for the future? How does this affect the unfolding of geopolitics? Is this the issue of this war or this attack by Israel on Iran? The participation of the United States. Finally, everything that ‘s connected with this, let me pause here before we continue to talk about our Well, the discussion is whether the attack was effective or not. The first point here, folks, there’s no way for us to know yet. It’s very recent. We don’t have it yet. No kind of investigation, and I don’t even know if we’ll have a complete investigation capable of really saying: “Ah, inside the Ford facility, there was total destruction. Someone will have to go in there. To know this, some intelligence service will have to steal photos, analyses, or reports from Iranians who went in there. As it just happened, as the attack was recent, we don’t have this information, so from that side, we can’t say for sure. I’m bringing you a realistic analysis here. The reality is that today it’s difficult to say, either it was super effective or not at all effective. It’s not possible. What Trump is saying is, it was totally effective, and Israel, in a way, is also saying this. We can’t say for sure that this is the reality, and we also can’t say that nothing happened and that it was only delayed a few months. There are many elements involved, and it will take us more time to be sure of what really happened with the Iranian nuclear program. A discussion that was raised shortly after and before the attack was that the Iranians would be removing the equipment from these facilities and putting it in another safe place. So, we have some possibilities. Here we go. The first one is to know if it was destroyed or not, and it is not possible to have an accurate and complete assessment. The second one is: what if Iran removed all its equipment from there, along with the enriched uranium, and took all of this to another place. Why did it take so long? The United States said it would have two weeks to negotiate. There is a satellite photo that shows trucks removing things from inside the facility. There is evidence that indicates that yes, this is what happened. Iran removed enriched material, or enriched uranium, and removed centrifuges to put them elsewhere. The third option, or the third discussion here that cannot be ruled out, is that I don’t know if everyone knows, but this Iranian Forddon facility is It was discovered in 2009. Obama presented it to the world. He held a press conference and presented it to the world. Look, Iran has a clandestine facility that no one knew about, and not even the International Atomic Agency knew about it. This facility was discovered and revealed to the world at that time. Iran was able to hide a facility of this size, right? Because this is one of the most sophisticated built under a mountain. It’s for this that the United States or Israel needed American bombs, right? For breaching, finally, drilling the ground of the bunkers. If Iran managed to do this back then, what guarantees us that it doesn’t have other clandestine facilities hidden? See, we can’t be sure. And I usually use the comparison with Gaza. I will explain the due proportions of this comparison, which is not a precise and complete analogy. Gaza is Israel, until today, has not been able to find all the tunnels, and that’s fine. Gas is small and has not been able to find all the tunnels. Imagine inside Iran. I know it’s a no. Iran and Gaza are not the same thing. Ramas and the Iranian regime are not. They are the same thing in the sense that Iran is a huge country, has a lot of minorities, it is a very large country, has a lot of people dissatisfied with the regime, so you have more space to infiltrate people to recruit dissidents, recruit those satisfied with the system, and with that, you have a support base that you can build within Iran that will give you accurate and relevant classified information in Gaza. Doing this with Ramas is much more difficult, the population is much more uniform, it is much more concentrated, the place is small, on the one hand, because it is small, it should be easier to find all the tunnels , and Israel has not managed to do this completely, but on the other hand, the fact of being small makes the penetration of intelligence and access to dissatisfied dissent more difficult. In the Iranian case, it is more difficult to find a needle in a haystack as large as the size of the country’s territory. But at the same time, you have another issue, which is that the regime is very unpopular, and the country is very large, so there are many people who may be dissatisfied and willing to simply sell information. betraying the regime, infiltrating, or revealing important information is all to say that we can’t be absolutely sure that Iran doesn’t have other facilities. And then I know that one of the arguments, or part of the discussion, will say the following: so why carry out an attack if this wasn’t known? And the attack was certainly effective to some extent. Because you can’t say that assassinating scientists who have been working on this for a long time doesn’t affect the program. You can’t say that destroying the drawings, the plans of the program, the originals, the files where all this was documented, planned, and built, doesn’t have an effect on the program. You can’t say that partially destroying the facilities where all this happened, whether partially or completely, also doesn’t have an effect on delaying the program. The idea of one, the use of force, or intervention, or an attack to destroy the nuclear program, was never an idea, a panacea, or a pure idea that was a perfect solution . Normally, when we talk about these complex issues in the world, the choices are between the least worst and the worst, so the choice to attack took into account It might not be easy, it might not be perfect, but it was still taken because it understood that if you let the Iranian regime free to do whatever it wants, it could end up causing an ease for the Iranian regime. Over the 20 years that this has been discussed, several of the actions taken by Israel and the United States were really only aimed at delaying the situation. They knew that they would not be definitive actions capable of ending the complete program. So the fact that the attack was not completely over does not make its effectiveness unfeasible. It is not far from the plans, it is from what had already been thought. Obviously, we have a different situation, which is something that has changed the perception of Iran. It has changed the perception of everyone. And if you are the Iranian regime, a dictatorship that already wanted to build the bomb because you understood that the bomb was an insurance policy for your survival, and you were attacked like this on this scale, it is such an attack. elaborate, involving the assassination, elimination of leaders, scientists, destruction of various things linked to the nuclear program, missile weapons factories, rockets, etc. It’s an attack that lasted so long and dominated the country’s airspace and a lot of other things. You’ll clearly conclude that more than ever you have to have an atomic bomb. So, the result is already expected. Iran would already conclude this. The Iranian regime would already conclude this. And the attack, right? You had to calculate, what do I gain from this attack versus what will produce a problem? A possible problem? The full and total conviction of the Iranian regime in having the bomb. Okay, Israel, in having carried out the attack, already thought and already accepted that the Iranian regime wanted to have the bomb. So, at this point, it didn’t change its opinion or affect the Israeli calculation to carry out the attack. The other aspect is that this partial destruction, even if partial, will complicate Iran’s life. Iran spent a lot of money over a long period of time, and it will have to spend much more money to rebuild what was destroyed, and without what it has, perhaps. He can’t advance so quickly, without what he already had, right? Now it’s been destroyed. He won’t advance so quickly. So he’ll need to rebuild a lot. This will take time, and in the meantime, other things may happen. This is the calculation Israel made. I don’t understand that these reports are conclusive, right? This defense intelligence report is from American defense intelligence, and it’s a preliminary report that says that perhaps Iran delayed its nuclear program by just a few months. This report is causing a lot of controversy. It didn’t help at all. So I don’t understand that these reports are conclusive. Even regarding the discussion of whether Iran had or wasn’t building the bomb, there were reports that contradicted them. These reports aren’t produced as a final way to end the debate. I have the truth, so here’s this report. It proves everything. This is the maximum evidence. They are reports that intend to provoke a debate. A discussion. Look, I’m analyzing it from this angle, and the argument could be that other reports are produced based on that one to confront, counterargue, or bring evidence that disprove that element brought by the report, then we will see multiple reports, each saying something different. What is undeniable here is that a lot was destroyed, a lot was affected, so it is impossible to think that this does not have an impact on the Iranian nuclear program. Now, if you ask me, ” The rock has resolved the program completely. Iran is no longer a threat. The nuclear threat no longer exists.” The answer is certainly no. The Iranian regime remains in power, determined. Not only determined, more than ever, but understanding the need to accelerate the search for the bomb. This is also certainly a fact, with very little room for negotiation, no matter how much Trump says it is. I want to. I am calling on Iran to negotiate more than ever. Iran will not accept it and will not enrich anything anymore. So, Iran, the regime remains in power. The regime has a need to accelerate the construction of its bomb, and the regime has no room to negotiate. Moreover, the Iranian parliament is discussing not allowing inspections by the UN, the UN agency that takes care of this, or perhaps Iran will even withdraw from the treaty. If we leave the treaty, it is also a clear indication that the nuclear non-proliferation treaty is a clear indication that Iran is determined to build the bomb and Israel will continue monitoring and perhaps will launch a second, third, fourth round of attacks. So, the problem has not been resolved. The Iranian threat has not been completely eradicated. It has been mitigated. It has been delayed. It has been compromised to some extent. To say that it has been completely eliminated is premature. We need much more evidence for this. And we really have some evidence that supports or gives more strength to the idea that the problem will exist. So, the Middle East is not pacified. Iran is not resolved. And this problem will return at what speed and when. We still do not know. It will depend on these analyses. what happened there, but Iran also has another problem to deal with today, which is not only to worry about accelerating the construction of its bomb, but also the survival of the regime. The regime was not overthrown, but it was shaken, and it was shaken because very important figures were eliminated. The level of penetration of the Mossad, the Israeli secret service, is very substantial, and this is causing a witch hunt within Iran. A gigantic paranoia. The regime feels that it has been penetrated internally and that it is vulnerable, that it does not know where the enemy is hiding. Iran has begun a process of internal persecution of all those who may have helped Israel. All those dissidents, all those who are revolted against the regime, all those internal supporters of Israel, whether Iranians, Afghans, or the various ethnicities that exist within Iran. So, Iran will focus a little inward to organize its house. Iran will need time to put everything in order, to clean up, to make sure that no one is a traitor, that no one is bought, that no one is linked to Israel, and this will take up time and effort. Iran’s energy , so this is a bit of the reality of what’s happening. This is what we have at this moment. It’s also a relevant discussion linked to all this. Oh, so they should have overthrown the regime, yes, it would be a more effective thing to do. This didn’t happen because Trump didn’t allow Israel to do this. Israel got many concessions from Trump to do this, right? Even though Israel started its operation alone, it achieved several objectives alone. In the end, the United States came, as I told you in the live, right, with the icing on the cake there, and carried out the final bombing. Most of the things were done by Israel, but they were done because the United States also gave the green light, and Trump supported this. This action of Israel supported it, in the sense of, okay, I’ll support you, you can go there and do it. And then when Trump says, you just can’t overthrow the supreme leader, then in this sense, Israel, then, yes, can’t continue . Overthrowing the regime would have been perhaps the final solution to this story. A new regime would be concerned with governing the country, coming to power, gaining legitimacy, transforming the economy, making reforms. necessary for Iranian society to gain popular approval. Do a lot of other things, and not be focused on this obsession. What this regime was obsessed with is this atomic bomb story. It would be the best path. And why didn’t the United States accept Trump? He continues to be averse to wars and he continues to not want to create wars that can get out of control. A regime change can get out of control. We have to analyze and compare it with what happened with other regimes that were overthrown. For example, the regime in Syria. It took a while for the Syrian regime to be overthrown, but when it was overthrown, during this bleeding process there, there’s Gaddaf in Libya, Afghanistan in Iraq, Saddam Hussein. One thing we need to make an important distinction here is that Iran is not Libya, it’s not Syria, it’s not Iraq. The Persian civilization is an ancient civilization. The national identity is much stronger. Isn’t it that the Iranian regime, when it doesn’t have a government, will collapse and turn into a major civil war. But on the other hand, Iran is not Composed only of Persians, you have several other ethnicities, the Azeris, who are the people ethnically connected to Azerbaijan. They make up a large portion of Iran’s population, and they certainly would prefer not to be part of Iran and join and resume the creation of the great Azerbaijan. We are talking about perhaps around 20% of the Iranian population. So, this portion of this population may, in a situation like this, want to separate and increase the size of Azerbaijan. This opens up a space for discussions and instability in the region. In a country as large as Iran, it can be an endless problem for the United States. And that is Trump’s caution and fear in accepting a regime change within Iran. You have other groups there, the CDOs themselves, which are a problem for Turkey, which are a problem in Syria and Iraq. They are also an issue. Within Iran, a fragmented Iran is weak without a central authority because the regime fell. It’s an Iran that allows these groups to also follow another path. So, there are several other groups that would separate. The bulk of the Persian population wouldn’t necessarily break up, or fight, or divide as happened in other places. Iran would remain intact, but it’s not a smooth transition either. It’s an uncertain transition. And who will this group be? Where are these Iranian forces that want to dominate the country or control the country back? And the other Yatolahs who are not as hard-line against Caminei as Caminei. They won’t do it. They will accept it. They will remain silent. What will come? A tea monarchy that was already corrupt and already had its problems too. What is the model for Iran? It’s a true democracy. Where are the parties? We already know that democracy isn’t about turning a switch on and off. So, this part, perhaps from the point of view of resolving the nuclear issue, would be very important. It would bring several other consequences that the United States did not want, and Israel did not do so, so, that is not the case, it did not advance to finalize. I think another important analysis here is to mention the role of Russia and China, right? It was clear that neither of them, despite Iran being part of the axis of dictatorships, neither Russia nor China, were willing to go any further for Iran. This reinforces what I said and commented on with you in the live broadcast I did a few days ago. Iran is the furthest of the four from the axis of dictatorships. It has a different ethnicity, a religion, an aspect, a different fundamentalist character. And Putin did not want to go any further. Okay, he buys the drones, right? They have some relationship. It’s important for us to understand when we say something. It’s not all or nothing. There are nuances. It’s not that Putin will completely abandon Iran. Iran is irrelevant to him. He made a public defense. He made a diplomatic defense, but he was not willing to hand over many of the things that Iran always wanted: the S400 anti-aircraft battery, the most modern fighters, to go there and save Iran in the midst of this. situation: Netanyahu called Putin. Putin has a crush on Israel because of the number of Russians who migrated to Israel. Israelis who speak Russian. This pleases Putin. So, isn’t it very obvious that Russia would be willing to enter this fight without mentioning all the problems Russia has, right, in its own war, as Trump said and commented, right, and took a shot at Putin, right, saying: “Man, you’re talking about the Iran war. Take care of your war, which you haven’t even resolved yet.” And China is more concerned with oil and energy, right, and it would certainly be better for China to have the Iranian regime in power, but it’s also not willing to go to war against the United States, as I mentioned to you. So, basically, the discussion is this. The summary of this story is this: people, the problem hasn’t gone away, but the attack wasn’t useless. I know that people sometimes want simple answers: oh, it worked or it didn’t work. The attack was partially successful. It was totally perfect. No, it wasn’t. It was supposed to be totally perfect. It could have toppled the regime, but then it involved other problems. Oh, so, and this A report that says it was only delayed by months. I don’t think it was delayed by just months. I think it was delayed more because it involves many other things, but there are things we don’t know. We don’t know if Iran has a clandestine facility. We don’t know if it managed to recover everything from there and store it somewhere else. We don’t know what the regime’s level of internal security and stability is, and how much energy they will have to spend to deal with this instead of building, accelerating , or chasing the bomb even more. In other words, the problem is the crisis of the regional conflict between Israel and Iran. This chapter hasn’t been closed. It’s an open chapter. We have to follow the scenes, information analysis, intelligence reports in the coming moments , and Iran’s movements to understand what will happen. We will have a new round of confrontations between Israel and Iran or not. We will remain silent. We will see this conflict quiet for a while, and the problem will return when Iran gets its house in order. We don’t know, but I came here to clarify these points for you. We will continue to follow you. Don’t forget to follow the channel, like the video here, share it, activate the bell so you receive notification that the video has been posted, and see you next time.