ZONA DE GUERRA – COMBATE NA UCRÂNIA: PARTE 1 I Professor HOC

[Music] importance. Vista [Music] Fore [Music] nice. [Music] Heat. Heat. [Music] [Music] to be my S. Please. [Music] Yeah, we see [Music] This is reaction today. [Music] Yeah. There she go. That’s foreignch. [Music] Today [Music] a day. Yeah. Journalist. This [Music] simple for training. for Ukrainian orchain. consequence. [Music] Tranquil. [Music] Tell tell us what is exactly your war I mean in terms of like how do you make this decisions what are the factors you’re considering uh in buying certain weapons uh basically we analyze the situation from two sides from the grassroot level and from the higher strategic level we try to understand firstly the dynamic on the battlefield which part of the front line are more intense than the others uh what is the balance of power on the battlefield what is the current strategy and cycle of innovation, adaptations, how basically people fight out. But then we also collect a lot of information from the grassroot and the brigades and battalions themselves. They uh issuing requests for us and ask for certain capabilities that we can verify against our analysis to understand is going to help them. Uh is it how battles really fought now? Is it what’s currently being effective? Or maybe we can suggest them a better way to resolve their problem. And we’re of course in close cooperation with the general staff too which might provide like additional pieces of the puzzle. For example, when there was preparation for the so-called contra offensive operation in 2020, the general staff brought us with request to situate the specific part of the front line with all the capabilities they need to make sure that uh all the necessary equipment is available for for the upcoming offense celebration. Basically we provide the entire ecosystem that military forces need to fight. We not we don’t provide just drones. So we don’t provide just machine guns. We try to build certain capabilities. So if we provide drones, we make sure that uh forces have all necessary cables, chargers, batteries, accumulators to to actually employ those things because that’s sometimes a problem with individual volunteers. They buy drone, they provide it to the battlefield, but then you don’t exploive for these drones. You don’t have chargers for these drones. don’t have all other things to actually make use of these drones. We try to make sure that you receive the package from us. You just open it and and uh and actually deploy and actually use it on battlefield. We make sure that you have a car to transport all this equipment that uh that we provided to you and we make sure that all the people who use this equipment actually properly trained to do that. Now about 70 80% of casualties in the battlefield inflicted by drones. So if at certain point Yeah. General in Russia and 70 to 80% of the casualties are done by drones. Yes. Both in terms of the military personnel and equipment. Well see yeah the situation is a little bit more complicated than this because artillery plays a a huge tactical role. I mean the very fact that artillery exists force people to disperse and which then allow them to hit them by the drones. But yeah, if you look by raw numbers, it’s basically 70 80% of casualties are result of the drone strike. Yeah. Uh what is your understanding from the military strategic perspective of the way the war is right now? Strategic uh circumstances and strategic context around this war. I think there is a lot of confusion about the balance of power between Ukraine and Russia because seen on the map Russia is so huge and it has much larger economy, much larger human potential. So for a lot of people and I commonly hear this argument like Ukraine is doom and there is no way Ukraine can win or Ukraine can at least stop the Russian ones that’s not necessarily the case because these ones seem to have a latent resource potential and there is absolutely another thing to mobilize actually those resources and for a number of political and technical constraints Russia cannot mobilize all the resources that they that they have. The primary example is the human resources because fear of political instability forces them to rely on this volunteer mobilization when they attract retroo with a high payments uh which give them about 30,000 people per month that’s sufficient to sustain their current tempo offense but if the lethality of Ukrainian troops increases and uh the the margin is quite is quite uh short for for Russia they will just run out of people they will start they will quickly face the dilemma either to risk uh uh political stability and to announce mobilization and the last time they tried during the autumn of 2022 that caused a huge exile of the of the Russian men the the assessment vised but we talk about between 300,000 people and 700,000 people which for the Russian economy which already struggles for because of the labor shortage is going to be a quite severe impact. Uh another part of this is that the production rates most of the tanks, infantry, fighter vehicles, uh armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces, uh they actually doesn’t produce new systems because their production capability is limited and because they uh they cannot quickly increase those production partly as a result of sanctions. They learned to obtain certain necessary components to produce all to produce missiles for example they need. uh but they so far failed for example to significantly increase the production of artillery systems because they lack all those machines necessary to forge barrels for artillery by the some estimations. For example, if the dynamic can continues the same way as it currently is, they risk to run out of tanks by the end of this year or the first half of the 2026. The same goes about in fighting vehicles. They are not going to run out of artillery system soon. Uh artillery is critical. Uh yeah, but they but they forced to deploy increasingly inferior systems because they run out of relatively modern late Soviet systems and they now have to deploy system from from 60s50s. We already even recorded the instances when they deploy artillery from the second world war. How important or how critical is the international assistance the US? Ukraine currently produce about 30 40% of all capabilities and weapon it needs from the United States. No, no, domestically. 30 to 40. 30 to 40% produced domestically. How is that ratio on the drone uh aspect? Uh almost all drones that we use are produced in Ukraine and because that’s so important capability on the battlefield currently that that’s a huge advantage for Ukraine. But then there are a lot of critical capabilities that Ukraine cannot u cannot produce itself. The most critical if we talk about the US for example it’s air defense systems particularly air defense systems capable to intercept ballistic missiles. Uh there are European uh alternatives like some te uh but there are only a few of such systems and the production level of interceptor is quite low. So they will not be able to replace patriots at least in a short term frame. So the the ability to have patriots and the ability to have more importantly interceptors for the patriots or those missiles that actually used to intercept Russian ballistic missiles uh is a paramount. Uh but not least important is the intelligence because US help Ukraine to actually have early warning about the launches of the ballistic missiles. [Music] for [Music] [Music] damage. [Music] Serus [Music] in the sea. [Music] is expression. I think we first need to identify how we look at the war between Ukraine and Russia. Whether we look at as the war between two countries or as something which is just one of the elements of a process which started in 2008. Mhm. So when the international order was completely deleted like you meant it instead of who cares about the international and then if you start from that point then you can follow it see the it’s the the conflict between different systems which started and it will be just unfolded in the next decades. So we are most probably just right in the beginning. So analytically when we try to see what war is where the trans are going so on and so on what we see that the war will be expanded the war will come to Europe to other countries to other European countries um and that’s what you believe you believe I don’t believe it’s not only believe but that’s one of our key scenarios but these are scenarios which are told by your intelligences so both countries nor countries countries Germany France and so on they’re dependent for 2027 28 for new innovation the only thing where we we might differ For example, they are they think that they have five years. We think that they don’t have five years yet. That the the key difference because how many years do you think they got? Two years to three years. So all all things but like can they go through to these other countries if they don’t conquer Ukraine? Of course. Why not? Okay. Let’s stock numbers. uh we wor uh on a like training workshop in in in Latia Latria in their peak they’re ready to immobilize 68,000 people 60 68 68 68 yeah so it is 1.5 and and then the second think okay which approaches Russia will use they will do it directly or via hybrid sides what they do much much much much better and Then green man will appear somewhere in and then then will start gathering in Brussels in a couple months. So it’s so it’s uh I think the first thing that we need to to identify is that we we as Ukrainian we don’t see it as Ukrainian Russian word we see it as a as a much much like the elements of the thick ones I mean we clearly identify that so it is already axis there is a access of Russia Iran North Korea and so on and this they call this axis the axis of dictatorships the axis of the well we have we have many names but they think that this is the the funniest thing that even though one year ago we we we we loved uh uh uh about North Koreans but at the moment it is one of the few armies in the world who have an experience of modern warfare and that they the key thing which also military start understanding it but for sure it’s not uh well understood by by politicians or by population at the moment but they here we are once again right in the of was the modern warfare invention and the impact will be very similar to invention of the powder. Incredible one and the uh North Koreans and others they they they got this experience this warfare. Yes, they were but they got the experience. No one in the western countries had this experience and and this is why we’re saying that the the Europeans are missing out. those guys are already receiving this experience of what it is to to work with unmanned uh systems with robotized platforms etc. And uh the Europeans are still thinking of how to modernize a tank. And this is the difference in in the mindsets of how the different the different sides are prepared for warfare. As Yuri rightly mentions is a psychological think and we don’t blame anybody. We’ve been there at the beginning of 2022 where the vast majority of Ukrainians was also trying to to to shut down their ears and not think and listen. You’re saying nobody or everyone was saying that they were invading. They were ready to evade. We were in total denial. Absolutely. And that’s why of course we want other people to learn our lessons and see the horrors that we are undergoing on a daily basis and show them and say please get prepared because you might be next but at the same time just as a as an individual uh we also understand it’s difficult to prepare unless you have seen the score or you have undergone this through with your own skin because the issue here is if the US uh abandons Ukraine right now and you’ve been talking about initiatives and ways and how to you know make this dependence less important but if happens right away uh what is the plan how is Ukraine going to survive it would be very bad and hard and complicated to lo such a partner as the US and I believe it’s not something that’s going to happen because it’s a beneficial interest for both countries to be in this partnership uh either for Trump of course like what’s happening in Ukraine now Ukraine is the strongest army in the European continent whatever US wants to do in this world having like not having such an army as a partner uh would be really like not the smartest thing to do Ukraine is the only country that can and able to fight the modern warfare that our partners in NATO has no idea about. They’re just like we are working pretty closely with a lot of countries regarding the military technologies and the training of the personnel and unfortunately what we see that a lot of NATO countries are getting ready to the war that is not going to happen. They’re preparing for the war of the past. They’re not ready to fight the war uh of the current times and have no idea about the wars on future. So Ukraine has a unique army, unique experience, unique processes and procedures, unique technologist that every army and every partner, every country of the world would be happy to be a partner with. So I really doubt and it would be uh very disappointing for both sides to lose such a partnership as Ukraine and US cards and we have a fruitful and beneficial partnership. So uh I have as my colleagues mentioned I had no doubts that Ukraine will be capable to stand uh I’m questioning if Europe will be capable to be stand without Ukraine. Mhm.